emopunker2004 01:51 PM 01-25-2013
Ur right, tl;dr. Read the first sentence
jluck 05:34 PM 01-25-2013
Originally Posted by spectrrr:
SORTA. What nobody seems to be talking about is what happens AFTER. Economically speaking, we have to look at the rate over time, not a one month sample. All that money that has been pouring into dealers wasn't "free". We created "sales" in the last month, LOTS AND LOTS of sales... but no new WEALTH. If the net balance of wealth is the same, then all you've done is shift the timing around a bit. I can tell you I'll give you $10 a month or $120 a year, it's the same amount of sales over time. (and yes, that's ignoring interest, which most small businesses are not earning).
So where did most of the money come from?** It was money that people had set aside for a future firearm purpose (now that the purchase has occurred, the future one will likely not happen)
** It was money that people set aside to buy a new TV, or something like that. They spent it on guns instead, but economically speaking, it's a net wash.
** It was money somebody did not have to spend, they racked up a CC bill which will have to be paid off later. ~~Which means they may sell that gear at a loss (not good for them, and cheap gear they're selling means gear someone else will buy cheap from them and thus NOT buy from a dealer, eliminating future sales).
~~ OR they tighten up the belt and don't make other household purchases in order to pay for the gun. (net wash)
In the meantime, dealers may have a giant pile of cash right now, but they know that sales in a few months are going to be almost nothing, as the CC bills come due and people realize they no longer have any money for these kinds of purchases. Furthermore, because the dealer can't get restocked well, they will miss out on sales from impulse buyers who can' find what they want, or regular buyers who choose to wait until next year to buy when what they want is available.
So in the meantime, dealers will have to run a very slim operation over the next 6 months, which will mean job losses from some. If Midway had 100 employees before this mess, they probably have 150 now... but in 3 months, that number might be down to only 75 unless they see the potential for sales to start recovering.
The one area of the economy which has a net increase, for now, is the manufacturing industry. Magpul is going to be cranking at full capacity for months, maybe the next year. So their year looks rosy. They'll probably hire the same number of folks that Midway has to fire. But what then? after two years, what are their pmag sales going to look like? everyone that wanted one, got one, or 10, or 50. The ones that got 50 are maybe looking at their stuff and saying "ehh, maybe I only needed 15 of these..." and then selling the extra 35. That cuts into magpul's sales.
Magpul will still come out ahead - there is all the first-time AR buyers that went out and got some, there's all the folks that used to have 5 mags, now they went out and purchased and extra 10, so now they have 15... on a normal day they would have been happy with 5... and they're not going to sell when they have less than 15, so that 10 mag sale did create a net gain in the industry. But overall, the gains will not be as dramatic as I think many people envision...
In a nutshell, this could only be counted as a significant stimulus if the dealers were restocked to normal next month, and sales continued at normal "July" levels. THEN everything from this last month of insanity would be a bonus. but as it stands, if you look back at the numbers a year from now, you'll find that the 12 or 18 month average holds fairly steady, with only a moderate increase in overall sales from the folks that decided they wanted to have 10-15 mags in stock instead of 5, or the first time buyers, but many of those purchases will be offset in the overall economy by a different product they DON'T purchase, a vacation not taken, a house project not built, etc.
Hopefully some of that rambling made sense.....
I'm sure most people are using the 'ol credit card anyways......Hoping to make a quick buck and "Pay off the debt" when there rich and famous...
Blueface 05:46 PM 01-25-2013
Well, in my case, credit card charges and will skimp on what I can and pay off as soon as I can but at least it is sitting in my safe and I get to say hi to it daily.
:-)
spectrrr 06:12 PM 01-25-2013
Originally Posted by Blueface:
Well, in my case, credit card charges and will skimp on what I can and pay off as soon as I can but at least it is sitting in my safe and I get to say hi to it daily. :-)
Can never underestimate the pleasure gained from giving it a daily hello
:-)
emopunker2004 07:18 PM 01-25-2013
lancer and troy mags in stock limit 2. primaryarms.com site is touch and go right now, sure it's getting hammered
emopunker2004 07:19 PM 01-25-2013
nevermind, its gone
Forgot I picked up this beauty a couple weeks ago.
:-)
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emopunker2004 08:33 PM 01-25-2013
Firgot?
spectrrr 08:33 PM 01-25-2013
big a 08:04 AM 01-26-2013
I ran back to the gun shop and grabbed the CM9 while i could get it for under $400 still. Now i just have to wait on the PJ holster. Pictures to come.
Blueface 02:42 PM 01-26-2013
Originally Posted by big a:
I ran back to the gun shop and grabbed the CM9 while i could get it for under $400 still. Now i just have to wait on the PJ holster. Pictures to come.
Paul is running way behind.
I just hit four weeks and nothing yet.
In the past, they would ship within two to three weeks.
Seems everyone is slammed.
spectrrr 03:36 PM 01-26-2013
My oh my... how did I miss seeing this thing of beauty before?
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spectrrr 03:47 PM 01-26-2013
Steelerfanatic 03:50 PM 01-26-2013
Originally Posted by Drez:
Forgot I picked up this beauty a couple weeks ago. :-)
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Is that the Hellfire Sport? If so I just ordered one.
bonjing 03:55 PM 01-26-2013
We were trying to get a jump on those umbrella lowers since before all the craze. And even then it was a pain in the butt to get them.
spectrrr 04:03 PM 01-26-2013
Originally Posted by bonjing:
We were trying to get a jump on those umbrella lowers since before all the craze. And even then it was a pain in the butt to get them.
I'd never heard of them.. but I'm loving the looks.... now to get my hands on one....
:-) :-) :-)
hammondc 04:12 PM 01-26-2013
Originally Posted by spectrrr:
My oh my... how did I miss seeing this thing of beauty before?
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Badass. Suppose you could get a Milla Jovovich relief cut in too?
Originally Posted by Steelerfanatic:
Is that the Hellfire Sport? If so I just ordered one.
It's a wasr with tapco stock set, trigger and muzzle break.
Buddy at one of the police stores/ gun shops gave me the last one they had for decent price.
I want that umbrella lower!!!!
emopunker2004 05:25 PM 01-26-2013
Originally Posted by spectrrr:
My oh my... how did I miss seeing this thing of beauty before?
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Those were a limited edition run and pricey
MurphysLaw 06:02 PM 01-26-2013
Originally Posted by Drez:
It's a wasr with tapco stock set, trigger and muzzle break.
Buddy at one of the police stores/ gun shops gave me the last one they had for decent price.
I want that umbrella lower!!!!
I want to do my wasr in the od green tapco
